Lately I've seen a number of blog posts and news stories touting HTML 5 as some sort of Flash Killer in the RIA space. Am I the only one shaking my head at this?
First off, let me say I'm thrilled that HTML 5 is in the works, and that the markup language is being improved. I could say it's about time, but I won't. (I guess I just did though!)
That said, the people claiming that HTML 5 is going to kill Flash seem to have a pretty poor memory. According to the editor of HTML 5, it's not going to become a proposed recommendation until 2022. That's over a decade, folks. That's a long, looooong time.
Think back a decade. Remember 1999? Most people were using IE 4. There was no AJAX, and there were no RIAs. There were no social networks. There was no Twitter, and no iPhone. Now project that kind of change forward 10 years, only double the rate of change. So much is going to happen before HTML 5 is widely adopted that it's not even funny. Heck, something might even kill Flash. But it's not going to be HTML 5.
And even if the new spec offers some kind of parity with Flash, Flex, and Silverlight, it's not like the existing RIA platforms are going to stand still. There will be huge advances over the next decade. So being, among other things, a Flex developer, I'm probably biased here. But I just don't see what all the fuss is about. An updated spec is great, and I sure it will find many uses and offer a lot of interesting features. But to trot this out as yet another Flash Killer seems unrealistic at best, and reeks of ulterior motives at worst. What do you think? Am I right? Or am I just blinded by my association with Flex?